Machine learning in individual claims reserving

Machine learning techniques make it feasible to calculate claims reserves on individual claims data. This paper illustrates how these techniques can be used by providing an explicit example in individual claims reserving.     

Multi-product capacitated facility location problem with general production and building costs

This research introduces the multi-product capacitated facility location problem with general production and building costs (MP-CFLPGC). The MP-CFLPGC extends previous problems found in the literature by including multiple products and general production and building cost functions that allow the modeling of different behaviors like economies of scale and congestion. The MP-CFLPGC is formulated as a mixed integer linear program (MILP). To evaluate the performance of the proposed formulation we analyze the results of a commercial optimizer on a set of 288 randomly generated test instances that resemble the Colombian cement industry supply chain. After one hour the optimizer achieved an optimality gap of 1.0 % or less in 55 % out of the 288 test instances. On average the optimality gap was 3.57 %. Additionally, we propose a randomized mathematical-programming-based heuristic for the test instances where the MILP formulation presents significantly high optimality gaps.     

Microfoundations of companies' dynamic capabilities for environmentally sustainable innovation: Case study insights from high‐tech innovation in science‐based companies

To achieve sustainable development, companies are increasingly putting an emphasis on the creation and the promotion of environmentally sustainable innovations. Environmentally sustainable innovation often involves a significant shift in a new strategic direction. This paper studies this shift from a dynamic capabilities perspective and aims to identify the microfoundations of science‐based companies' dynamic capabilities for high‐tech environmentally sustainable innovations. It investigates the development of high‐tech environmentally sustainable innovations in two distinctive science‐based companies. To scholars, this study provides an in‐depth process analysis, over time, of how and why microfoundations of dynamic capabilities influence the development of a science‐based company's high‐tech environmentally sustainable innovations. To practitioners in science‐based firms, this process study can function as a frame of reference, enabling the tailoring of a strategy for high‐tech environmentally sustainable innovation.     

Italy’s Political Upheaval and the Consequences of Inequality

Intereconomics - Political upheaval, with the dangerous rise of the far right – in Italy and Europe – is likely to be stabilised when politics and policies again turn their attention to...     

Pricing a rural development program: uncertainty,indifference, and protest behaviors

This article presents an econometric approach to modeling uncertainty, unwillingness to pay, and protest behavior in contingent valuation studies. For that purpose, a mixture model with sample selection is developed for a multiple‐bounded uncertainty elicitation format. The proposed theoretical framework is applied to evaluate the social welfare impact of implementing a sustainable rural development program. Results show that a “naive” analytical approach that excludes protesters from the analysis would result in significantly higher willingness to pay estimates for those individuals who favor the implementation of the program and agree to reveal their true reservation prices.     

Revising the European Central Bank’s fiscal rules to support growth and employment

Abstract

The paper presents a reform proposal for the operations of the European Central Bank (ECB) whose purpose is to create a common set of risk-free assets for financial institutions operating in the euro area (EA), which is the necessary condition for having a single internal financial market. The proposal does not require the introduction of changes in the existing European Union treaties. The effects of this reform on the debt dynamic of EA member countries permit a revision of the existing fiscal rules. With the help of some simulations, it is shown that maintaining compliance with the European treaties, the reform of the ECB operations and revised fiscal rules would transform the current fiscal deflationary stance into a reflationary one. Some implications for aggregate demand and growth for the EA are briefly discussed.     

Shopping value,tourist satisfaction and positive word of mouth: the mediating role of souvenir shopping satisfaction

We propose new insights into key satisfaction outcomes for souvenir retailers, such as positive word-of-mouth recommendations, seeking deeper comprehension of overall tourist satisfaction determinants, by analysing the mediating role of tourist souvenir shopping satisfaction. We apply variance-based structural equation modelling by means of partial least squares to a sample of 408 tourists all of whom had purchased souvenirs. The results suggest that tourist shopping satisfaction partially mediates the relation between shopping value and positive word of mouth, while tourist shopping satisfaction completely mediates the relation between shopping value and overall tourist satisfaction. The results and their implications are then discussed to arrive at pertinent conclusions on tourist souvenir shopping satisfaction.     

Erosion mitigation in the Waikato District,New Zealand: economic implications for agriculture

Soil erosion, in its various forms, is caused or aggravated by agricultural activities. Mitigation of surface erosion comprises the construction of shelterbelts, fencing, riparian buffering, and stock reduction. Mitigation of mass‐movement erosion, in turn, takes the form of spaced planting of trees to maintain a persistent, healthy, and complete ground cover. In this article, we assess the economic implications to agriculture of the adoption of mitigation alternatives for erosion control in the Waikato District, New Zealand. The Waikato District presents a spatial pattern of erosion that affects profitability of dairy, and sheep and beef enterprises. We use the Universal Soil Loss Equation and the New Zealand Empirical Erosion Model to estimate erosion figures that are then fed into an economic‐focused, nonlinear, partial equilibrium mathematical programming model of New Zealand land use. Different scenarios are constructed for surface and mass‐movement soil erosion targets ranging from 0% to 50% below baseline levels. We find that achieving surface erosion targets is more expensive than mass‐movement targets, and results in different responses in regional‐level costs, land use, enterprise net revenue, and adoption of mitigation alternatives.     

Do financial variables help predict the state of the business cycle in small open economies? Evidence from Switzerland

We analyze the forecasting ability of financial variables to predict the state of the Swiss business cycle up to eight quarters ahead. Overall, our results suggest that financial variables convey leading information for the prediction of business cycles, even when applied to a small open economy. However, we clearly find that model specifications need to be extended to include variables accounting for external shocks, such as exchange rates or international commodity prices. It also appears that the forecasting contribution of individual variables changes over time. Specifically, in the last two decades, stock market liquidity has replaced the term spread as the best single predictor.